Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Russian forces will physically enter any of several specific Ukrainian cities — Dobropillia, Druzhkivka, Sloviansk, Sumy, Kramatorsk, or Kharkiv — before the end of 2026. The odds shown (Dobropillia at 62%, Druzhkivka at 27%, Sloviansk at 22%) reflect how likely the market thinks each city is to fall. A 'Yes' for any city means Russian troops or Russian-controlled territory actually reaches the city's edge — not just nearby villages, but the city itself. Each city resolves 'Yes' the moment any part of it appears shaded as Russian-controlled on the ISW map — a daily-updated conflict tracker used by analysts worldwide — and that shading holds through at least one full day's update cycle. The deadline is December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. One important detail: a peace deal that hands Russia actual physical control also counts as Yes, but a mere announcement of a deal does not — boots or equivalent real presence on the ground must actually arrive. No relevant news about the Ukraine war or these specific cities was included in the provided headlines. The headlines provided appear to be entirely unrelated to this conflict. To track this market, the developments worth watching are changes on the ISW daily map, any major shifts in front-line positions near Dobropillia or the Donetsk region, and any ceasefire or peace negotiation announcements. War is genuinely hard to forecast. Front lines can be slow for months then shift quickly. Dobropillia is priced highest at 62%, suggesting the market sees it as closer to Russian advance routes, but urban combat, Ukrainian defenses, Western military aid decisions, and potential negotiations all pull in different directions. A ceasefire could freeze everything before any city is entered — or collapse and accelerate advances. With 18 months still on the clock, there is a wide range of plausible outcomes, and no one can reliably predict which direction the war moves.

The odds right now

• Dopropillia+8.5 pts (1w)62%
• Druzkhivka-7.5 pts (1w)27%
• Sloviansk-1.5 pts (1w)22%
• Kramatorsk+1.0 pts (1w)17%
• Sumy9%
• Kherson-1.0 pts (1w)9%
• Kharkiv-3.5 pts (1w)6%
• Zaporizhia-3.0 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dopropillia (48.46978658204883° N, 37.08593384222816° E; https://maps.app.goo.gl/vipjg3UsWpqRnhM6A) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08) which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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