Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Prediction markets give the capture of all of Kostyantynivka by the end of 2026 a minority but non-trivial share of volume, making it a contested rather than heavily favoured outcome. The market runs across two resolution dates — 30 June 2026 and 31 December 2026 — with volume heavily concentrated on the year-end deadline rather than the mid-year one. Resolution depends on the ISW Ukraine map showing the entire municipality shaded as Russian-controlled and that shading persisting through a full subsequent daily update cycle.

Market structure

Two outcomes are available, structured around whether Russia captures all of Kostyantynivka by 30 June 2026 or by 31 December 2026. Volume is heavily skewed toward the year-end date, with the mid-year outcome attracting only marginal backing. The primary resolution source is the ISW interactive Ukraine map; DeepStateMap serves as a fallback, with credible reporting consensus as a secondary fallback if both become permanently unavailable. Negotiated-settlement transfers of actual control qualify for Yes resolution.

Background

Kostyantynivka is a city of strategic significance in Donetsk Oblast, situated roughly 25 kilometres north of Donetsk city and serving as a logistics and supply hub for Ukrainian forces operating across the central Donbas front. The city has remained under Ukrainian control throughout the full-scale invasion that began in February 2022, though the front line has crept progressively closer as Russian forces advanced through Avdiivka and surrounding settlements during 2024 and into 2025. Its population, once exceeding 60,000, has declined substantially due to the proximity of hostilities. Control of Kostyantynivka would give Russia a significant operational foothold deeper into the oblast and would complicate Ukrainian supply lines to multiple directions of the front.

Key factors

The trajectory of Russian advances along the Toretsk and Chasiv Yar axes directly affects the pace at which pressure on Kostyantynivka intensifies, since those corridors represent the most proximate avenues of approach. Ukrainian defensive depth, fortification quality, and reinforcement capacity in this sector are critical variables, as is the broader availability of Western military aid, particularly artillery ammunition and air defence systems, which affect attrition rates on both sides. Any ceasefire negotiations or agreed humanitarian corridors could freeze front-line positions before full capture is achieved, which under the resolution criteria would constitute a No outcome unless actual Russian control is subsequently established. The resolution mechanism's requirement that ISW shading persist through a full daily update cycle means that temporary infiltration markings or contested-control designations would not trigger resolution. ISW's classification of 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas' explicitly does not qualify, meaning partial encirclement or urban infiltration short of full municipal control would leave the market unresolved.

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