NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

What you need to know

This market is asking which Democrat will win the right to represent their party in the November 2026 general election for New York's 12th congressional district. The primary — a vote among registered Democrats in that district — is how the party picks its official candidate. Whoever wins that internal vote becomes the Democratic nominee. The market is not asking who wins the seat in November, only who wins the Democratic contest to get there. The market settles on whichever candidate is officially declared the winner of the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary for NY-12. The result will be confirmed through official Democratic Party sources. One important detail: if someone wins the nomination but then drops out or is replaced before the November general election, the market still resolves to whoever originally won the primary — the replacement does not count. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, it resolves as 'Other.' None of the provided news headlines relate to this race — they cover unrelated topics from different countries and contexts. The development most worth watching for would be any polling, endorsements, candidate debates, or local news coverage specific to the NY-12 Democratic primary in the days leading up to June 23, 2026. The market currently prices Micah Lasher as a clear frontrunner at 61%, with Alex Bores close behind at 38% — so it is not a coin toss, but it is genuinely competitive. Primary elections are notoriously hard to forecast: turnout is low and unpredictable, last-minute endorsements can shift momentum, and polling of low-turnout primaries is often unreliable. With the vote just days away, the main uncertainty is whether Bores can close the gap or whether Lasher's lead holds through election day.

The odds right now

• Micah Lasher+8.5 pts (1w)62%
• Alex Bores-3.5 pts (1w)37%
• Jack Schlossberg-0.9 pts (1w)3%
• Erik Bottcher0%
• Carolyn Maloney0%
• Brad Hoylman-Sigal-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Keith Powers-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Gale Brewer0%
• Brad Lander0%
• Cameron Kasky0%
• Lina Khan0%
• Julie Menin0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves June 23, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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