Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

What you need to know

This market is asking: after Israel's next election, who will become Prime Minister? A 'Yes' for any named candidate means that person wins enough political support after the vote to be formally installed as Prime Minister. It's not just about who wins the most seats — Israel's system means a leader must build a coalition of parties and then be officially sworn in by the President to take office. The market settles on whoever is formally sworn in as Prime Minister after the Israeli parliamentary election scheduled for October 27, 2026. The swearing-in is what counts — not winning the election or being asked to form a government. Caretaker or temporary Prime Ministers do not count. If elections happen earlier than October 2026, the market resolves after that earlier vote instead. If nobody is sworn in by December 31, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other' — reflecting how Israeli coalition talks sometimes stretch for months. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. The headlines supplied are about the death of U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, which has no direct connection to Israeli elections or leadership. To follow this market, the developments worth watching would be Israeli polling, shifts in coalition dynamics, Netanyahu's legal situation, and any signs of early elections being called before October 2026. Israeli politics is genuinely unpredictable because winning an election and becoming Prime Minister are two different things. A leader needs to assemble a majority coalition from multiple parties, and those negotiations can collapse or produce surprising results. Netanyahu has survived many predictions of his political end; Eizenkot and Bennett are newer forces with uncertain coalition potential. The election is still over a year away, which is a long time for alliances to shift, new candidates to emerge, or early elections to be triggered by a government collapse.

The odds right now

• Gadi Eizenkot+0.5 pts (1w)40%
• Benjamin Netanyahu+1.5 pts (1w)37%
• Naftali Bennett-2.0 pts (1w)11%
• Avigdor Lieberman-0.6 pts (1w)3%
• Itamar Ben Gvir-0.4 pts (1w)1%
• Yoaz Hendel+0.2 pts (1w)1%
• Yair Lapid-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Gideon Sa’ar-0.2 pts (1w)0%
• Israel Katz0%
• Amir Ohana+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Benny Gantz-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Yariv Levin0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.