Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

What you need to know

This market asks which mathematicians will receive the Fields Medal at the 2026 International Congress of Mathematicians — essentially, who will win math's version of the Nobel Prize this year. A 'Yes' for a given person means they are officially named a Fields Medal winner. Because up to four medals can be awarded at once, multiple people can all resolve 'Yes' in the same cycle. Each mathematician listed here is a separate question running in parallel. The market settles based on whoever the International Mathematical Union officially names as Fields Medal winners at the ICM 2026 congress, scheduled for July 23–30, 2026. The IMU's own website is the primary source. If no winners are announced by August 15, 2026, every option resolves as 'Other' — a built-in safety valve for delays or cancellations. Anyone not on the listed options who wins would also fall under 'Other.' None of the provided news headlines relate to mathematics, the Fields Medal, or the ICM 2026 congress. There is no relevant recent news to report here. The kind of development worth watching for would be any official preview, shortlist signal, or scheduling update from the International Mathematical Union ahead of the July 23 congress opening. The Fields Medal selection process is genuinely secretive — the IMU committee decides privately, and leaks are extremely rare. The odds here (88–93%) reflect community speculation based on each mathematician's research reputation, not any insider information. Up to four medals are awarded, so multiple candidates can win, which is why several names are priced so high simultaneously. Still, past cycles have surprised experts, and an unrecognized candidate winning is always possible.

The odds right now

• Hong Wang+15.0 pts (1w)94%
• Jacob Tsimerman+8.0 pts (1w)94%
• Yu Deng+23.5 pts (1w)89%
• John Pardon+33.5 pts (1w)85%
• Vesselin Dimitrov-12.5 pts (1w)27%
• Aleksandr Logunov-4.5 pts (1w)16%
• Jack Thorne-15.5 pts (1w)14%
• Julian Sahasrabudhe-12.5 pts (1w)7%
• Will Sawin-1.0 pts (1w)6%
• Alexander Efimov-2.9 pts (1w)6%
• Sam Raskin-16.0 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 30, 2026

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

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