Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?

What you need to know

This market asks whether HYPE, the token from the Hyperliquid trading platform, will grow large enough in total value to overtake Solana — one of the biggest and most established cryptocurrencies in the world. 'Market cap' means the total value of all coins in circulation: price multiplied by supply. A Yes means HYPE catches and passes SOL in that total value at least once before the end of 2026. A No means Solana stays ahead the entire time. The market settles Yes the moment CoinGecko's data shows HYPE's market cap is higher than SOL's — even briefly, even once. It doesn't have to stay ahead, just cross over at any point before December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If that never happens, it resolves No. CoinGecko is the official source; CoinMarketCap is only used as a backup if CoinGecko stops reporting the data. The two news items provided — one about infrastructure projects in India and one about medicine policy in Benin — have no connection to this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of news that would actually matter: major announcements from Hyperliquid, big shifts in HYPE or SOL prices, or large changes in either token's total supply or adoption. The market prices this at only 5%, reflecting how large the gap currently is — Solana is one of the top cryptocurrencies by value, and HYPE would need extraordinary growth to surpass it. The main uncertainty isn't really two equal sides: it's simply whether something unexpected and dramatic happens in crypto markets before the end of 2026. Crypto is volatile enough that rare moves do occur, but the scale of catch-up required here is the core challenge the market is pricing in.

The odds right now

• Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?-3.5 pts (1w)7%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the market capitalization of HYPE (HYPE) surpasses that of Solana (SOL) according to CoinGecko at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's data for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana, respectively. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead.

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