Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Russian forces will take control of a specific road intersection inside the small village of Mala Tokmachka, in the Zaporizhzhia region of southern Ukraine. Mala Tokmachka sits in an area that has seen sustained fighting since Russia's 2022 invasion. A Yes means Russian troops physically hold that crossroads by the deadline — a No means Ukraine still controls it, or the front line hasn't reached it. The market settles Yes if a specific mapping organization — the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which publishes a daily conflict map — shades that exact intersection red, indicating Russian control, and that shading holds through at least one full daily update cycle. Shading marked only as 'infiltration' doesn't count. A peace deal that gives Russia actual boots-on-the-ground control there also counts as Yes — but just signing a deal on paper does not. If Russia captures it and then loses it again later, it still resolves Yes. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. There is no relevant recent reporting here about fighting near Mala Tokmachka or the Zaporizhzhia front. The kind of news that would matter: ISW map updates showing Russian advances toward this village, Ukrainian or Russian military statements about the southern front, or any ceasefire or negotiation developments that could affect territorial control. Ground conditions in this part of Ukraine have been relatively slow-moving, which is partly why the September deadline sits at only 10% while the December deadline is at 39% — the market sees capture as possible but not imminent. The biggest unknowns are battlefield momentum, whether any ceasefire freezes the lines before Russia reaches this specific point, and how Ukrainian defenses hold. Frontline maps can also shift in days after months of stalemate, making timing genuinely hard to call.

The odds right now

• December 31-6.0 pts (1w)38%
• September 30-11.5 pts (1w)10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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