What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of July 13 2026?

What you need to know

This market is asking how high or how low the S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY) will trade during one specific week in July 2026. SPY is a fund that tracks the S&P 500 index — essentially a snapshot of 500 large U.S. companies. There are three price targets: $745, $755, and $740. Each is its own yes/no question: did SPY touch that price level at any point that week? The current odds suggest the market thinks SPY will be trading somewhere in that general range by then. Each price target resolves Yes if SPY's price reaches that level — even briefly — during regular trading hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time) on any day from July 13 to July 17, 2026. It only needs to touch the target for a single one-minute window. Prices are checked using a data service called Pyth. Importantly, pre-market and after-hours moves don't count — only activity during the official trading day. If SPY never reaches the target during that week, it resolves No. No specific recent news was provided for this market. Because this market resolves more than a year from now, the events that will matter most — economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, corporate earnings, and any major global developments — haven't happened yet. Those are the kinds of things worth watching as the date approaches. A year is a long time in financial markets, and a lot can change. The three targets ($740, $745, $755) are fairly close together, which means small market swings could easily determine whether one resolves Yes and another No. The market currently prices $755 at 52% and $740 at 37%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the direction and size of moves over the next 12-plus months. Economic surprises, policy shifts, or global events — none of which are predictable today — could push SPY well above or below all three targets.

The odds right now

• ↓ $74578%
• ↓ $74055%
• ↑ $75552%
• ↓ $73534%
• ↑ $76027%
• ↑ $76512%
• ↓ $73012%
• ↓ $7255%
• ↑ $7704%
• ↑ $7752%
• ↑ $7802%
• ↑ $7852%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 17, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the week of July 13 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

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