Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking whether a small satellite called Doge-1 — a 12U CubeSat, which is roughly the size of a shoebox times twelve — will physically lift off from its launch pad before a specific deadline. There are three separate deadline versions bundled here: end of 2026, mid-2027, and end of 2027. A 'Yes' means the rocket carrying it actually leaves the ground in time. A 'No' means it hasn't launched by the cutoff, for any reason — delays, cancellations, or anything else. The market settles as Yes the moment Doge-1 physically launches — meaning the rocket clears the launch pad — before the relevant deadline (11:59 PM ET on the chosen date). It doesn't matter what happens after liftoff: if the rocket explodes one second later, it still counts as a launch. Confirmation comes from official SpaceX video or other credible reports. If the satellite is renamed but otherwise the same mission, that also doesn't change anything. No launch by the deadline means No. None of the provided news headlines relate to Doge-1, SpaceX, or this mission in any way. There's nothing here to draw on. What would actually matter to watch for: any official SpaceX launch schedule announcement, a confirmed rideshare manifest listing Doge-1, or news about the mission being delayed or cancelled. Doge-1 has a long history of delays — it was originally announced around 2021 and has been pushed back repeatedly, which is why the market prices end-of-2027 at only 55% even with over a year of runway left. Space launches face many hard-to-predict obstacles: rocket scheduling, regulatory approvals, technical issues, and payload readiness. The mission also depends on SpaceX's Falcon 9 rideshare manifest, which is outside the satellite team's full control. The main uncertainty is simply whether the pattern of delays continues or finally breaks.

The odds right now

• December 31, 202751%
• June 30, 202750%
• December 31, 2026-1.9 pts (1w)10%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2027

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

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