Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 2027
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Understand this market
This market is asking whether a small satellite called Doge-1 — a 12U CubeSat, which is roughly the size of a shoebox times twelve — will physically lift off from its launch pad before a specific deadline. There are three separate deadline versions bundled here: end of 2026, mid-2027, and end of 2027. A 'Yes' means the rocket carrying it actually leaves the ground in time. A 'No' means it hasn't launched by the cutoff, for any reason — delays, cancellations, or anything else.
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December 31, 2027
Resolution Criteria
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
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December 31, 2027
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