World Cup: Group B Last Place

What you need to know

This market is asking which team in Group B will finish the group stage with the worst record — meaning fewest points and goals relative to the other teams. A 'Yes' on Qatar means people expect Qatar to be the team eliminated at the bottom of the group, while Bosnia and Canada are seen as less likely to finish last. Think of it like asking: who goes home earliest and with the worst results out of these three teams? After Group B finishes its matches (scheduled for June 11–27, 2026), whichever team has the fewest points sits at the bottom, and that team wins this market. If two teams are tied on points, FIFA's official tiebreak rules — like goal difference, then goals scored — decide who ranks lower. The market settles based on FIFA's official standings. One edge case: if the group stage is cancelled or delayed past July 11, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other' instead of any team. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market. The headlines cover geopolitical and health topics unrelated to Group B football. To track this question, the developments worth watching are match results within Group B as they happen during the June 11–27 group stage — those results are what directly determine the final standings. Qatar is heavily favored to finish last — the market prices them at 70% — which reflects their status as the weakest team on paper. The main uncertainty is simply whether the unexpected happens: an upset win, injuries to key players on stronger teams, or a surprise performance from Qatar. Bosnia at 21% represents the real alternative scenario. Canada at 7% is a long shot. This is a lopsided question, not a coin toss, so the honest uncertainty is mostly about whether the heavy favorite holds.

The odds right now

• Qatar-7.5 pts (1w)65%
• Bosnia and Herzegovina+6.5 pts (1w)24%
• Canada-4.3 pts (1w)6%
• Switzerland-0.4 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes last place of Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie for bottom of the group, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after July 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no bottom-place team declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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