2nd largest private company end of June?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the second highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates.

Anthropic is the heaviest-backed outcome to hold the second-largest private company valuation by end of June 2026, according to NPM (Nasdaq Private Market) pricing data tracked on Polymarket. The market is heavily concentrated on Anthropic, with OpenAI as the only other outcome attracting meaningful volume. Resolution is determined by NPM-published valuations on 30 June 2026, with a fallback window extending to 4 July 2026.

Market structure

The market spans 12 named private companies, but volume is heavily concentrated on just two outcomes: Anthropic and OpenAI. The remaining ten contenders — including SpaceX, Stripe, Databricks, and others — attract minimal collective interest. Resolution is based on NPM daily pricing data published for 30 June 2026. A fallback deadline of 11:59 PM ET on 4 July 2026 applies if NPM data is delayed. IPO or direct listing prior to resolution removes a company from consideration.

Background

The private company valuation landscape has shifted considerably in the AI era, with large language model developers attracting capital at a pace that rivals the most valuable listed technology firms. Anthropic, backed by substantial investment from Amazon and Google among others, has seen its reported valuation rise sharply over successive funding rounds. OpenAI, which operates as a capped-profit entity and has attracted investment from Microsoft and SoftBank, commands the largest reported private valuation globally, making the second-place ranking a contest between the remaining field. The broader group of contenders includes SpaceX, Stripe, Databricks, Neuralink, Canva, Kraken, Epic Games, Anduril, Lambda, and Perplexity — a cross-sector mix spanning aerospace, fintech, gaming, and AI infrastructure.

Key factors

Anthropic's position in this market depends on whether it maintains its NPM-tracked valuation ranking relative to peers through 30 June 2026. New funding rounds announced by any listed company before that date could alter relative standings, as NPM pricing typically incorporates secondary market transaction data and may reflect capital raises. OpenAI's trajectory is particularly relevant: should its valuation increase substantially, it remains the largest company and does not compete for second place, but any structural change to its entity — such as a conversion to a for-profit corporation — could affect how NPM tracks and prices its shares. An IPO or direct listing by any contender before the resolution date would remove that company from consideration entirely, as the market is restricted to private valuations only. Acquisition or merger activity affecting any listed company would similarly affect eligibility. The NPM data revision policy means only initial published figures count, barring corrections to clearly erroneous entries.

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