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Which company has best AI model end of July?

Which company has best AI model end of July?

Resolves Jul 31, 2026·$24.7k 24h vol·tech
$85.4k total volume·Open for 7 days

Anthropic

82%+16.5%

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Understand this market

This market is asking: which company — Anthropic, Google, or OpenAI — will have the single top-ranked AI chatbot in the world on July 31, 2026, according to one specific public scoreboard? The scoreboard, called Chatbot Arena, ranks AI models based on millions of head-to-head votes from real users who compare two models side by side and pick the better one. Yes for Anthropic means their best model sits at #1 on that day; Yes for Google or OpenAI means one of theirs does instead.

OutcomeYesNo
Anthropic
Google
OpenAI
xAI
Meta
Alibaba
Z.ai
Moonshot
Baidu
DeepSeek

Order Book

Anthropic

PriceSharesTotal
92.0¢797$733
91.0¢4.5k$4.1k
90.0¢3.0k$2.7k
89.0¢1.9k$1.7k
88.0¢3.0k$2.6k
87.0¢1.5k$1.3k
86.0¢571$491
85.0¢389$331
84.0¢282$237
83.0¢1.0k$869
83.0¢last trade
3.0¢ spread
80.0¢345$276
79.0¢200$158
78.0¢1.0k$801
77.0¢851$655
75.0¢175$131
74.0¢34$25
73.0¢10$7
71.0¢533$379
70.0¢1.3k$933
68.0¢50$34
$3.4k bids$15.1k asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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Anthropic

82%