Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by...?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aleksandar Vučić ceases to be the President of Serbia for any period of time between November 13, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Aleksandar Vučić's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Prediction market trading on whether Aleksandar Vučić will leave the Serbian presidency by 31 December 2025 is heavily concentrated on the 'No' outcome, meaning traders broadly do not expect his departure within that window. The market is a binary yes/no question, with volume skewed against resolution. The deadline for any qualifying event is 31 December 2025, with the market itself resolving by 30 June 2026.

Market structure

This is a binary market with two outcomes: Vučić leaves the presidency before 31 December 2025 ('Yes') or does not ('No'). Volume is heavily concentrated on the 'No' side. Resolution requires either an official announcement from the Serbian government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming resignation or removal. An announcement alone triggers immediate resolution, regardless of when the departure formally takes effect.

Background

Aleksandar Vučić has served as President of Serbia since 2017, having previously held the office of Prime Minister. His tenure has been characterised by centralised executive authority and a contested relationship with domestic opposition movements. Serbia has experienced sustained protest activity in recent years, with demonstrations over governance, media freedom, and democratic backsliding drawing significant public participation. The broader political context includes ongoing tensions between Serbia's EU accession aspirations and its relationships with Russia and China, as well as unresolved questions over Kosovo's status. Vučić's position at the centre of these competing pressures has made his political durability a subject of sustained international attention.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on whether Vučić could leave office before 31 December 2025. Constitutional removal requires either a voluntary resignation, a successful impeachment procedure through the National Assembly, or a ruling by the Constitutional Court — all of which involve multiple institutional steps and are not easily accelerated. Sustained street protests have historically created political pressure but have not previously produced a presidential departure. The scale, duration, and political organisation of any protest movement would matter, as would the response of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party and its parliamentary majority. International diplomatic pressure, particularly from the European Union or the United States, could in theory alter political calculations, though such pressure has not historically produced abrupt leadership change in Serbia. Any triggering event before 31 December 2025 — resignation announcement, parliamentary vote, or court ruling — would resolve the market immediately to 'Yes'.

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