Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Keir Starmer and Miguel Díaz-Canel are the heaviest-backed contenders to be the first leader permanently removed from office before 2027 in this multi-outcome prediction market. Trading volume is concentrated on these two figures, with the remaining 22 outcomes — including leaders such as Netanyahu, Zelenskyy, and Takaichi — attracting comparatively modest interest. The market resolves on the first permanent departure from office confirmed by credible reporting, with a deadline of 31 December 2026.

Market structure

The market lists 24 outcomes across heads of state and government from more than a dozen countries. Volume is heavily concentrated on two outcomes, with the field otherwise broadly distributed at low levels. Resolution requires permanent removal from office — not resignation announcements, election defeats, or caretaker continuations. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. If no listed leader permanently leaves office by 31 December 2026, the market resolves to 'None before 2027'.

Background

The market was constructed to track an unusually diverse field of world leaders across very different political systems — parliamentary democracies, presidential republics, one-party states, and conflict-zone governments. It deliberately excludes Viktor Orbán, who held a separate market. The resolution bar is intentionally high: mere election loss, resignation announcement, or caretaker status does not qualify. Only irreversible, permanent departure counts. This distinction became relevant after South Korea's Yoon Suk Yeol was suspended under impeachment proceedings in late 2024 — an event the resolution criteria explicitly cite as insufficient to trigger resolution. The 2025–2026 window is politically active, with elections, coalition pressures, and geopolitical instability affecting multiple listed leaders simultaneously.

Key factors

Parliamentary confidence mechanisms represent the most direct structural pathway for leaders in Westminster-style or coalition systems: a lost vote of no confidence followed by a confirmed successor taking office would satisfy the permanent-removal criterion. Cuba's one-party structure means Díaz-Canel's departure would most likely follow an internal party decision rather than an electoral mechanism, making the timing and signalling of any such transition difficult to assess from outside. Zelenskyy's position is tied to wartime legality — Ukrainian law currently suspends elections during martial law, creating both a protective and constraining dynamic. For leaders in presidential systems with fixed terms, only death, incapacitation, or a successful constitutional removal process would qualify. Caretaker provisions are explicitly excluded, meaning a leader who steps down but remains in a transitional role would not trigger resolution. The requirement for a consensus of credible reporting adds a practical filter against disputed or ambiguous transitions, particularly relevant in less transparent political systems.

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