How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

This market asks how low Donald Trump's approval rating will fall during 2026, as measured by Silver Bulletin's poll aggregator. Trading is heavily concentrated on the '35%' outcome, with progressively lower thresholds attracting sharply less volume. Resolution depends on whether Silver Bulletin's green trend line touches or falls below each listed value at any point between 1 January and 31 December 2026.

Market structure

The market offers five discrete thresholds — 35%, 30%, 25%, 20%, and an unlisted fifth outcome — each resolving 'Yes' independently if Silver Bulletin's approval trend line reaches or drops below that value on any single finalised date within the 2026 calendar year. Volume is heavily concentrated on the 35% threshold, with the 30%, 25%, and 20% outcomes attracting progressively smaller shares. The resolution source is the Silver Bulletin poll aggregator's green trend line; RealClearPolitics serves as a fallback if Silver Bulletin becomes permanently unavailable.

Background

Presidential approval ratings are among the most closely watched indicators of political standing, influencing mid-term electoral prospects, legislative leverage, and party cohesion. Donald Trump's approval ratings have historically been characterised by unusual stability — rarely climbing far above or dropping far below a narrow band — compared with most modern presidents. Silver Bulletin, operated by polling analyst Nate Silver, applies a weighted aggregation methodology that adjusts for pollster house effects and recency, producing a smoothed trend line considered more resistant to individual outlier polls. The question of how far approval could fall in 2026 is tied directly to the political and economic environment of his second term, including policy outcomes, economic conditions, and the build-up to the 2026 midterm elections.

Key factors

Several structural factors could push approval ratings toward or away from the lower thresholds. Economic conditions — including inflation, employment figures, and market performance — have historically correlated with presidential approval movements. Major policy decisions or legislative outcomes, particularly on high-salience issues such as immigration, trade tariffs, and healthcare, could shift public sentiment. Significant geopolitical events or domestic crises tend to produce short-term approval spikes or drops depending on perceived presidential handling. The 2026 midterm election cycle may polarise partisan responses in ways that compress or widen the approval range. Silver Bulletin's methodology weights recent polls more heavily and discounts partisan-leaning pollsters, meaning the trend line reacts to genuine shifts in the polling landscape rather than individual surveys. The finalisation mechanic — whereby a data point is only counted once the next one is published — also means no single polling day near year-end can resolve the market prematurely. Any permanent discontinuation of Silver Bulletin's tracker would trigger a switch to RealClearPolitics, whose methodology differs and could produce a different reading.

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