Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction market trading on whether Iran will publicly agree to end all uranium enrichment by 31 December 2026 shows volume broadly split, with neither outcome commanding a dominant position. The market covers any official Iranian pledge — unilateral, bilateral with the United States or Israel, or as a precondition of a wider deal — to cease all enrichment entirely. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting before the end-of-year deadline.

Market structure

The market has a single tracked outcome — a 'Yes' resolution — with the implied split sitting close to an even distribution between the two possible results. Resolution requires an explicit Iranian commitment to end all uranium enrichment, not merely to cap or limit it. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. The deadline is 31 December 2026, with no stated fallback extension.

Background

Iran's uranium enrichment programme has been a central point of international tension for two decades, underpinning successive rounds of sanctions, diplomatic negotiations, and at times military threats. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action temporarily constrained enrichment levels, but the United States withdrew in 2018 under the Trump administration, after which Iran progressively expanded its enrichment activities. By 2025, Iran had accumulated stockpiles of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, according to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reporting. Renewed US-Iran diplomatic contacts in 2025 raised the profile of a potential new agreement, though the precise shape of any deal — and whether it would require a full cessation rather than a cap on enrichment — remained publicly unresolved.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on resolution. First, Iran's domestic politics are deeply divided over any enrichment concession: the Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority over nuclear policy, and internal factions differ sharply on acceptable terms. Second, the US negotiating position — specifically whether it demands full cessation of enrichment versus a capped programme — determines whether any deal could meet the resolution criteria. Third, Israeli policy may influence the pace and ambition of any agreement, given publicly stated Israeli red lines around Iranian nuclear capability. Fourth, IAEA verification arrangements must be acceptable to all parties, as verification disputes have derailed prior talks. Fifth, the resolution criteria are notably strict: agreements to limit enrichment levels or cap weapons-grade production explicitly do not qualify. This means partial or phased deals, which have historically been the architecture of nuclear diplomacy, would not trigger a 'Yes' resolution unless a full cessation pledge is embedded.

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