Trump out as President by June 30?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction markets place the overwhelming weight of trading volume on Donald Trump remaining as President through 30 June 2026, with the 'Yes' outcome — covering resignation, removal, or any permanent departure from office — drawing only minimal backing. The market is heavily concentrated on a 'No' resolution. It resolves upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying departure, or at the deadline of 30 June 2026.

Market structure

The market presents a single binary question: does Trump permanently cease to be President by 30 June 2026? Volume is heavily concentrated against a 'Yes' resolution. Resolution requires a consensus of credible reporting. Temporary removals — including a Section 3 or unsustained Section 4 Twenty-Fifth Amendment invocation, or impeachment without Senate conviction — do not qualify. A sustained Section 4 invocation or confirmed resignation would trigger immediate 'Yes' resolution regardless of when the departure takes effect.

Background

Donald Trump returned to the presidency in January 2025 following his victory in the November 2024 election. No sitting US president has ever been removed from office through impeachment proceedings; two presidents have resigned (Richard Nixon in 1974) or died in office in the modern era. Trump was impeached twice during his first term, in 2019 and 2021, but was acquitted by the Senate on both occasions. The Twenty-Fifth Amendment's Section 4 mechanism — which allows the Vice President and Cabinet to declare a president unable to discharge his duties, subject to congressional confirmation — has never been successfully invoked to remove a president.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on this market. Congressional composition matters: permanent removal via impeachment requires a two-thirds Senate majority, a threshold that has never been reached in US history. A sustained Twenty-Fifth Amendment Section 4 invocation similarly requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers. Voluntary resignation, historically rare and typically preceded by sustained political crisis, would constitute a qualifying event. Health events affecting the president's capacity to serve could in theory trigger Section 4 proceedings, though the constitutional and political bar for sustaining such a declaration is exceptionally high. The resolution window closes 30 June 2026, covering roughly the first 18 months of Trump's second term. Any qualifying announcement — even one whose effect is scheduled for a later date — would trigger immediate resolution under the market's stated criteria.

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