Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
June 16
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Understand this market
This market asks a simple question: will Donald Trump publicly say something insulting about a real, specific person on a given day? A Yes means he did — a nickname, a put-down, calling someone weak or stupid, that kind of thing. A No means he went the whole day making only policy statements or neutral comments, without personally attacking anyone. Given how frequently Trump communicates publicly, the market is essentially asking whether he breaks from his well-established pattern on any single day.
Order Book
June 16
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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June 16
94%