0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

What you need to know

This market asks whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will come to a complete stop — even for a single day. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, and roughly 20% of the world's oil passes through it. A 'Yes' means zero ships of any kind were recorded passing through on at least one day between late June and the deadline. A 'No' means at least some ships passed through every single day during that window. It resolves Yes the moment the IMF's shipping-tracking tool (called PortWatch) records zero ship arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz on any single day from June 26, 2026 onward — up to the chosen deadline. If every day in that period shows at least one ship, it resolves No. The only data source that counts is IMF PortWatch itself; if other trackers show zero but PortWatch doesn't, that doesn't trigger a Yes. One important edge case: obvious data errors can be corrected within three days before being locked in. None of the provided recent headlines relate to the Strait of Hormuz, shipping disruptions, or tensions in the Persian Gulf. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments that would matter to watch for are: military escalation involving Iran, new sanctions affecting tanker traffic, or official closures announced by regional governments. The market is priced at 15% for a Yes by July 31, meaning the market currently sees this as unlikely but not impossible. The Strait has never fully closed in modern recorded history — it carries too much critical trade for any single day of zero transits to be routine. The real uncertainty is tail-risk: an extreme event like a major military conflict or blockade that nobody can time or predict. The July 14 deadline is priced at just 7%, showing the market sees the risk as small over a shorter window but rising slightly over more time.

The odds right now

• July 31+11.2 pts (1w)15%
• July 14+7.5 pts (1w)10%
• July 7+0.3 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Related

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