Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Prediction markets currently show a broadly split picture on whether Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to normal by 31 July 2026, with neither outcome commanding a dominant position. The market resolves 'Yes' if IMF Portwatch records a 7-day moving average of transit calls at or above 60 for any single date before the deadline. Volume is distributed across both outcomes, reflecting genuine uncertainty about regional security conditions.

Market structure

This is a binary market with two outcomes: 'Yes' and 'No'. Neither outcome is heavily favoured, with volume broadly distributed between them. Resolution requires IMF Portwatch to publish a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at or above 60 at any point up to 31 July 2026. The resolution source is the IMF Portwatch platform. A 14-day grace period applies if data for the final date is not published promptly.

Background

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, is one of the world's most strategically critical shipping chokepoints, handling a substantial share of global seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas trade. Disruptions to transit traffic through the strait have historically been triggered by regional military tensions, particularly involving Iran and its neighbours, as well as broader conflicts in the Gulf. In recent years, heightened tensions linked to the broader Middle East security environment have periodically suppressed commercial shipping activity through the strait. The IMF Portwatch platform tracks vessel movements in real time, providing a data-driven benchmark for assessing when — or whether — traffic volumes recover to levels consistent with normal operations, defined in this market as a 7-day moving average of 60 or more transit calls.

Key factors

Several structural factors bear on whether traffic returns to the defined threshold by 31 July 2026. Regional security dynamics, particularly the state of relations between Iran and Gulf states, Western naval presences, and any active conflict in the broader Middle East, directly influence commercial operators' willingness to route vessels through the strait. Insurance markets play a significant role: elevated war-risk premiums can deter transits even when physical passage remains technically feasible. Diplomatic developments — including any agreement between Iran and Western governments over sanctions or nuclear matters — could rapidly alter the risk calculus for shipping firms. Conversely, renewed escalation, new sanctions regimes, or incidents involving naval or commercial vessels could suppress traffic further. The resolution threshold of 60 transit calls on a 7-day moving average represents a specific numerical benchmark; traffic approaching but not reaching that level would still resolve the market 'No'. The timing of any recovery relative to the 31 July deadline is therefore critical, as a gradual normalisation that completes after the deadline would not count.

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