Andrew Tate released from custody by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Andrew Tate will leave government custody before a specific date. There are two separate deadlines being tracked: July 31, 2026 (priced at 10%) and December 31, 2026 (priced at 30%). A Yes means he physically walks free, even if conditions like house arrest still apply. A No means he remains held by authorities past that date. The market settles Yes the moment Tate leaves state custody in any meaningful way, including house arrest, bail, or parole. Simply being moved to a different prison, taken to court temporarily, or extradited to another country does not count as a release. The deadline is 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Official government statements are the primary source, but strong consensus among credible news outlets can also be used to settle it. The most directly relevant news is significant: Andrew and Tristan Tate were arrested in Florida on July 19, 2026, on charges of rape and sex trafficking. This means Tate is now in custody in the United States, under a fresh set of serious criminal charges. That development directly shapes the question of whether and when any release could happen. The core difficulty is that serious criminal charges, especially ones involving rape and sex trafficking, typically mean extended custody while legal proceedings unfold. The July 31 deadline is very close, making release by then look unlikely at 10%. The December 31 deadline gives more time, but the severity of the charges makes bail or release uncertain. How quickly courts move, whether bail is sought or granted, and how proceedings develop are all genuinely unpredictable from here.

The odds right now

• December 3131%
• July 312%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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