Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?

What you need to know

This market is asking how busy the Strait of Hormuz will be with ship traffic by the end of July 2026. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman — roughly 20% of the world's oil passes through it. The question uses a 7-day moving average, which just means the average number of ships recorded per day over the final week of July. A low number (0–20 ships/day) would suggest severely disrupted or near-blocked traffic; a normal number (40–60) would mean shipping is roughly back to typical levels. The market settles based on one specific number: the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals that the IMF's Portwatch tracking tool publishes for July 31, 2026. Portwatch counts container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and similar vessels — but only the ones it directly tracks. Whichever bracket (0–20, 20–40, or 40–60) that final average falls into wins. One edge case worth knowing: if the number lands exactly on a bracket boundary, the higher bracket wins. The IMF Portwatch website is the only source that counts here. A headline from July 13, 2026 says commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen back to near-record lows — which directly matters here, as it suggests traffic is already severely reduced. Another headline from the same day reports that gold slipped and oil surged on fears of a Strait of Hormuz closure, signaling that markets are treating a disruption or blockage as a real near-term risk. These two signals together help explain why the market currently leans heavily toward the lowest traffic bracket. The core uncertainty is geopolitical and fast-moving: the situation in the region could escalate further, partially ease, or shift dramatically before July 31. Even if traffic is near-record lows today, two and a half weeks remain — enough time for a ceasefire, a new confrontation, or a diplomatic shift to change the picture. The market is not a coin toss: it currently prices the two lowest brackets at about 91% combined, suggesting most participants expect traffic to stay depressed. The real question is whether something unexpected pushes traffic back up — or pushes it even lower.

The odds right now

• 0-20+42.1 pts (1w)47%
• 20-40+5.0 pts (1w)44%
• 40-60-37.5 pts (1w)8%
• 60-80-6.9 pts (1w)2%
• 80+-1.2 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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