Bitcoin above ___ on July 20?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Bitcoin's price will be above a specific dollar threshold at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 20, 2026. There are three separate price targets: $62,000, $64,000, and $66,000, each with its own odds. A 'Yes' means Bitcoin cleared that exact threshold at that exact moment. A 'No' means it did not, even if it was very close or crossed the line earlier or later in the day. Settlement is decided by one single data point: the closing price of the one-minute trading candle on Binance's BTC/USDT market at exactly 12:00 noon Eastern Time on July 20, 2026. Only Binance is used, not Coinbase, Kraken, or any other exchange. If that one closing price is above the target, it resolves Yes. If it is at or below the target, it resolves No. A price spike at 11:59 or 12:01 does not count. The provided news headlines cover small, unrelated crypto tokens and do not include any information about Bitcoin's current price or recent price movements. That means there is no relevant recent news to summarize here. The kind of news that would matter for this market includes major announcements about Bitcoin adoption, regulatory changes, or broad financial market events that could shift Bitcoin's price significantly. The $62,000 threshold is priced at 97%, meaning the market sees Bitcoin clearing that level as very likely but not guaranteed. The $66,000 threshold sits at only 9%, reflecting much more doubt. The main sources of uncertainty are how volatile Bitcoin can be, how far the deadline still is, and how narrow the measurement window is: a single one-minute candle. Unexpected macro events, regulatory news, or sudden market moves in either direction can shift Bitcoin's price sharply and quickly.

The odds right now

• 52,000100%
• 54,000100%
• 56,000100%
• 58,000100%
• 60,000100%
• 62,00099%
• 64,00084%
• 66,0009%
• 68,0001%
• 70,0000%
• 72,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 20, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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