Bitcoin above ___ on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: will Bitcoin's price be above a specific dollar amount at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 21, 2026? There are three separate price thresholds here: $60,000, $62,000, and $64,000, each its own market. A Yes means Bitcoin is trading above that number at that exact moment. A No means it is at or below it. Think of it like a snapshot photo of the price taken at noon, not an average across the day. Settlement depends on one single data point: the closing price of the 12:00 noon Eastern Time one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT trading pair on July 21, 2026. Binance is the only source that counts here, so if Bitcoin is above the threshold on another exchange but not on Binance at that exact minute, the market resolves No. The price must be strictly higher than the threshold, not equal to it. One minute, one exchange, one price. The news provided does not include anything directly about Bitcoin's price or any major development affecting the broader crypto market. The headlines cover small, unrelated tokens. There is no relevant news to summarize here. The kind of development that would matter to watch for includes major regulatory announcements, large institutional moves into or out of Bitcoin, or sudden macroeconomic news that tends to move crypto markets sharply. The $60,000 threshold is priced at 98%, meaning the market strongly expects Bitcoin to be above that level, and the main uncertainty there is simply whether something unexpected happens. The real tension sits around $64,000, priced at 64%, which shows genuine disagreement. Bitcoin can swing thousands of dollars in a single day, so even a price that looks comfortable today can cross a threshold by July 21. Over a year out, anything, from regulation to macro shocks to technology news, can shift the picture.

The odds right now

• 54,000100%
• 56,000100%
• 58,000100%
• 60,00099%
• 62,00093%
• 64,00055%
• 66,00010%
• 68,0001%
• 70,0000%
• 72,0000%
• 74,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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