Bitcoin above ___ on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Bitcoin's price will be above a specific dollar amount at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 22, 2026. There are three separate versions of this question: one asks if Bitcoin will be above $60,000, one above $62,000, and one above $64,000. A 'Yes' means Bitcoin is trading higher than that number at that exact moment. A 'No' means it is at or below it. Think of it like a snapshot of the price at a single specific minute. The market settles based on one single data point: the closing price of the 12:00 noon (Eastern Time) one-minute candle for Bitcoin priced in US dollars on the Binance exchange, on July 22, 2026. Only Binance's BTC/USDT price counts here, not prices from Coinbase, Kraken, or any other exchange. If that one closing price is strictly higher than the threshold ($60k, $62k, or $64k), it resolves Yes. At or below the number, it resolves No. None of the recent news provided is relevant to Bitcoin's price direction. The headlines cover small, unrelated crypto tokens. There is no meaningful recent news here to point to. The kinds of developments worth watching for would be major regulatory announcements, large institutional moves into or out of Bitcoin, or significant macroeconomic news like interest rate decisions that tend to move crypto markets. Bitcoin's price is genuinely hard to predict over a year out. The market prices the $60,000 threshold at 97%, meaning participants see that level as very likely to hold, while $64,000 sits at 62%, which is much closer to a coin toss. Even the high-confidence thresholds carry real risk: Bitcoin has historically dropped 30-50% in short periods. A single piece of regulation, a large exchange failure, or a broad market shock could move prices dramatically. The one-minute snapshot rule also means a brief dip at exactly noon could flip the result.

The odds right now

• 56,000100%
• 58,00099%
• 60,00097%
• 62,00089%
• 64,00054%
• 66,00014%
• 68,0002%
• 70,0001%
• 72,0000%
• 74,0000%
• 76,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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