Bitcoin above ___ on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: will Bitcoin's price be above a specific dollar amount at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 23, 2026? There are three separate price levels being tracked: $56,000, $58,000, and $60,000. Each one is its own yes-or-no question. If Bitcoin is trading at, say, $61,000 at that moment, all three resolve Yes. If it is at $57,500, only the $56,000 one resolves Yes. The higher the threshold, the harder it is to reach. Settlement is decided by one single data point: the closing price of the 1-minute candle that ends at noon Eastern Time on July 23, 2026, taken from the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance specifically. Only that one exchange, only that one trading pair, only that exact minute. If the price is one cent above the threshold, it resolves Yes. One cent below, it resolves No. Other exchanges like Coinbase or Kraken are not used, even if they show a different price at that moment. The news provided does not relate to Bitcoin's price or anything that would directly affect where BTC trades by July 2026. The headlines cover small altcoins and trading volumes for unrelated tokens. To track this market meaningfully, you would want to watch Bitcoin's overall price trend, major regulatory news, macroeconomic events like interest rate decisions, and any large institutional moves in the crypto market. Bitcoin at $56,000 to $60,000 by July 2026 is where the market currently sees things as very likely, with odds above 96% across all three thresholds. At those confidence levels, the real uncertainty is not whether two equal sides exist: it is simply whether something unexpected disrupts the picture. A major market crash, a regulatory shock, or a broad financial crisis could push prices down sharply. The question hinges on a single minute's price, which adds a small but real element of timing risk on top of the broader trend.

The odds right now

• 54,000100%
• 56,00099%
• 58,00099%
• 60,00097%
• 62,00086%
• 64,00053%
• 66,00018%
• 68,0004%
• 70,0001%
• 72,0001%
• 74,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.