Bitcoin above ___ on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Bitcoin's price will be above a specific dollar threshold at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 24, 2026. There are three separate versions of this question, one for each price level: $58,000, $60,000, and $62,000. A 'Yes' means Bitcoin is trading above that number at that exact moment. A 'No' means it is at or below it. Think of it like a snapshot: only one second of one day matters, not the average or the trend. Settlement is decided by a single data point: the closing price of the 12:00 noon (Eastern Time) one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT trading pair on July 24, 2026. Binance is the only source that counts, so prices from Coinbase, Kraken, or any other exchange are irrelevant even if they differ. If Bitcoin is above the target price at that exact close, it resolves Yes. At or below, it resolves No. One important edge case: the time is very precise, so a price spike right before or after noon would not count. The recent news provided is about small, unrelated cryptocurrencies like ABT, BOBO, BTT, CAKE, and LUNA. None of it is relevant to Bitcoin's price or where it might be in mid-2026. There is no meaningful recent Bitcoin-specific news to draw from here. The kind of developments that would genuinely matter to watch for include major regulatory changes, large institutional moves into or out of Bitcoin, or broad shifts in the global economy. Bitcoin is one of the most volatile assets in the world, and July 24, 2026 is still roughly a year away. The market currently prices the $58,000 threshold at 98%, meaning participants collectively consider it very likely Bitcoin stays above that level. But the further the deadline, the more time there is for unexpected events: a regulatory shock, a market crash, or a macro crisis could all move prices dramatically. The $62,000 threshold at 85% reflects more genuine uncertainty. Even a highly probable outcome is not a certain one.

The odds right now

• 54,000100%
• 56,00099%
• 58,00098%
• 60,00096%
• 62,00083%
• 64,00054%
• 66,00022%
• 68,0006%
• 70,0001%
• 72,0001%
• 74,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.