Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Ngatangiia Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: in the Cook Islands' next general election, which candidate will win the single parliamentary seat for the Ngatangiia area? The Cook Islands is a small Pacific nation, and like most of its parliament, Ngatangiia elects one representative. A win for Tukaka George Tamarua Ama means he takes that seat; a win for Mapi Ioteva or Itinga Maoate means one of them does instead. The market settles based on the official winner of the Ngatangiia constituency in the August 12, 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary election. Whoever the Cook Islands government certifies as the winner of that seat is who this market pays out on. The source of truth is credible news reporting, and if there's any dispute, the Cook Islands government's own official result takes precedence. One edge case: if a clear result still isn't known by July 31, 2027, the market resolves as 'Other' — meaning no named candidate wins the payout. None of the provided news headlines relate to this market. They appear to cover unrelated topics about Australian politics and entertainment. There is no recent reporting here about the Cook Islands, its 2026 election, or the Ngatangiia constituency specifically. The kinds of developments worth watching for would be candidate announcements, local polling, or any changes to the election schedule. The main honest uncertainty here is that very little public information exists about this specific constituency race. Cook Islands local elections receive minimal international coverage, so the odds likely reflect limited data rather than deep research. One candidate holds a majority of the market's implied probability at 54%, but with over a year until the election and thin information available, that number could shift significantly as the race develops and more local context emerges.

The odds right now

• Tukaka George Tamarua Ama54%
• Mapi Ioteva30%
• Itinga Maoate8%
• Christopher Robert Denny4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 12, 2026

Parliamentary elections to elect the Parliament of the Cook Islands are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the constituency of Ngatangiia in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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