Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 14 - July 21, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many times Trump posts on Truth Social in one specific week, and which range that total falls into. A 'Yes' for a given range, say 120-139, means he posts somewhere between 120 and 139 times in that seven-day window. It is not about what he says, just the raw count of posts, quote posts, and reposts that appear on his main feed between noon on July 14 and noon on July 21, 2026. At the close of the window, noon ET on July 21, 2026, a tracking tool counts all qualifying posts from Trump's Truth Social feed. Original posts, quote posts, and reposts all count. Replies do not count, unless they somehow appear on his main feed. Deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within roughly five minutes of posting. The tracker at xtracker.polymarket.com is the primary source, with Truth Social itself as a backup if the tracker has a technical problem. The provided headlines show Trump engaging publicly with international topics this week, including tariffs on Brazil and energy policy comments tied to a UK politician. These suggest an active news period for Trump, which could influence how much he posts, but the headlines do not give us any direct count of his Truth Social activity during the specific window this market covers. Trump's posting volume can swing a lot from week to week depending on news cycles, political events, personal mood, and travel. The market is currently split most heavily toward the 120-139 range at 40%, but the two neighboring ranges each hold 20%, which shows real uncertainty about whether a given week runs hot or cool. No outside observer can reliably predict whether a busy news week pushes him above or below his typical range, and one unusually active or quiet day can shift the whole total.

The odds right now

• 100-119+22.6 pts (1w)44%
• 120-139+9.0 pts (1w)35%
• 140-159-0.5 pts (1w)15%
• 180-199+0.3 pts (1w)10%
• 160-179-4.0 pts (1w)6%
• 200+-26.5 pts (1w)3%
• 80-99-4.8 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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