Elon Musk # tweets July 20 - July 22, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Elon Musk post on X (formerly Twitter) during a specific 48-hour window? The three possible outcomes are fewer than 40 posts, between 40 and 64 posts, or between 65 and 89 posts. It's not about what he says — just how often he hits post during those two days. A third-party tracking tool at xtracker.polymarket.com will count every original post, quote post, and repost Musk makes between July 20 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time and July 22 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time. Replies don't count — unless they appear on his main feed rather than inside a conversation thread. Importantly, deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within roughly five minutes of posting. The two recent headlines provided — about an IMF adviser appointment and a port construction project — have no clear connection to this market. No relevant recent news was provided. What would matter here is anything that might make Musk unusually active or quiet on X during that specific weekend, such as a major news event, a product launch, or a public controversy he might respond to. Musk's posting habits are genuinely unpredictable day to day. The market currently puts the 40–64 range as most likely at 46%, but nearly as many people (38%) think he posts fewer than 40 times. His volume can swing dramatically based on news cycles, personal mood, or whether a controversy pulls him into a long posting streak. A single busy afternoon or a quiet weekend can shift the total by dozens of posts, making any range feel uncertain.

The odds right now

• 40-6447%
• <4036%
• 65-8914%
• 90-1143%
• 115-1391%
• 140-1640%
• 165-1890%
• 190-2140%
• 215-2390%
• 240+0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 20 12:00 PM ET to July 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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