Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: how hot will Amsterdam get on July 16, 2026? Specifically, it's asking you to pick the peak daytime temperature on that one day — the highest reading recorded at Schiphol Airport. A result of 26°C means the hottest moment of that day reached roughly 79°F, a warm but not scorching summer day. The three main options — 25°C, 26°C, and 27°C — cover a narrow band of typical mid-July temperatures for the city. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on July 16, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius — no decimals. Whichever temperature bucket contains that peak reading wins. One thing worth knowing: the market waits until the first data point from July 17 appears before it officially closes, to make sure the full day's readings are captured. No recent news relevant to this market was provided, which makes sense — weather forecasts for a date over a year away don't exist yet. What would actually matter to watch closer to July 16, 2026 is the 10-day forecast from European meteorological services, any emerging heatwave patterns over Western Europe, and historical climate data for Amsterdam in mid-July, which typically shows highs ranging from around 22°C to 28°C. Weather is genuinely hard to predict even days out, let alone over a year away. The three leading options — 25°C, 26°C, 27°C — together account for about 82% of the market's probability, but they're spread across just a 2-degree range, meaning a small shift in actual conditions pushes the result from one bucket to another. A cooler cloudy day or an unexpected heatwave could easily push the reading outside all three top options. The market is pricing these outcomes as plausible but close, and no forecast data yet exists to narrow things down.

The odds right now

• 26°C33%
• 25°C26%
• 27°C25%
• 28°C6%
• 24°C5%
• 29°C3%
• 23°C or below1%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 16, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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