How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

What you need to know

This market asks whether fewer than 150 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in a single week — or more. The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world's oceans; roughly a fifth of the world's oil passes through it. A normal week sees around 150 or more ship crossings. So this market is essentially asking: did shipping traffic drop sharply — below the usual range — or did things stay relatively normal? The market settles based on the official ship-transit count published by IMF Portwatch, a real-time shipping data tool run by the International Monetary Fund, for July 6–12, 2026. If the total number of recorded ship crossings comes in below 150, the market resolves in the '<150' bracket (currently priced at 86%). If the count lands between 150 and 174, that bracket wins. One edge case to know: if IMF Portwatch's data conflicts with other sources, that alone does not change the outcome — this market follows IMF Portwatch only, even if other trackers show something different. This is directly relevant: two headlines from July 12 report that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, while the US simultaneously claimed traffic was still flowing and freedom of navigation was intact. That contradiction — Iran saying it's closed, the US saying ships are moving — is exactly what this market is measuring. The IMF Portwatch data will be the official tiebreaker. Whether actual ship transits dropped below 150 for the week depends on what that data ultimately shows. The core uncertainty here is a factual dispute happening right now. Iran and the US are publicly saying opposite things about the same waterway at the same moment. That's genuinely unusual and makes the outcome hard to call. Even if some ships passed through, the question is whether the weekly total crossed the 150 threshold. The market currently prices a sharp traffic drop (under 150) at 86% — so the main uncertainty isn't really 'two equal sides,' it's whether the disruption was as severe as that implies, or whether enough ships still moved to push the count higher.

The odds right now

• <150+73.6 pts (1w)86%
• 150-174-13.0 pts (1w)9%
• 175-199-21.1 pts (1w)1%
• 225+-21.3 pts (1w)1%
• 200-224-13.0 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 12, 2026

This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. The exchange's settlement fee applies everywhere and is shown before you confirm any trade. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.