Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Iran will start charging ships money to pass through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most important shipping lanes, where roughly 20% of global oil travels. A Yes means Iran officially creates and actually collects a mandatory fee from commercial vessels transiting the strait. A No means that doesn't happen by the deadline. The three dates are separate versions of the same question, each asking how soon it might occur. To settle Yes, two things must both happen before the deadline: Iran makes an official announcement of such a fee, and credible news reporting confirms that collection has actually started. A one-off demand on a single ship doesn't count — it must be a stated policy covering a broad category of vessels. Normal port fees or customs charges don't count either. If Iran announces it but collection never begins, or collection starts quietly without an official announcement, the market stays No. Recent headlines from July 12, 2026 report that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and that military targets on Qeshm island — a strategic island right at the strait's entrance — were struck in new attacks. This is directly relevant: a closure and active military conflict near the strait suggest extreme tension, which could either accelerate Iran imposing fees as leverage, or create a chaotic environment where a formal fee policy is overtaken by more urgent events entirely. The core tension is between two forces pulling in opposite directions. Active military conflict near Hormuz could push Iran toward using fees as an economic weapon — or it could make any organized fee collection practically impossible while fighting continues. There is also genuine ambiguity in what counts: Iran could frame payments as 'security services' rather than tolls, and the criteria require credible consensus that the fee is truly mandatory in practice. The fast-moving military situation makes anything past a few weeks genuinely hard to call.

The odds right now

• December 3170%
• October 31-11.0 pts (1w)57%
• August 31-7.0 pts (1w)42%
• July 31+4.5 pts (1w)9%
• July 15+1.8 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify). Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria: 1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented. 2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun. Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

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