Iran full airspace closure by...?

What you need to know

This market is asking: will Iran shut down its entire airspace to commercial flights at some point before a given deadline? A 'Yes' means Iran declares a full, country-wide stop to commercial aviation — the kind of closure that grounds all flights crossing Iranian skies, not just flights in one corner of the country. A 'No' means that never happens, or only partial/regional restrictions occur. Think of it like a country-wide 'closed' sign hung over all of Iran's sky. This settles as Yes if Iran orders a general shutdown of its airspace — covering all of the Tehran FIR (Iran's entire managed airspace zone) — before the deadline of 11:59 PM ET on the relevant date. The closure must come from Iran itself, not from airlines choosing to avoid the area. Partial closures, like blocking just one region or banning only small private planes, do not count. Crucially, this has already happened twice in early 2026 — those past events show the bar for 'Yes' is real but has been crossed before. The most relevant headline is that Iran declared a closure of the Strait of Hormuz on or around July 12, 2026 — but a maritime group says the strait itself remains physically open. Separately, Iran's parliament speaker issued sharp warnings to the US after an exchange of strikes near the strait. These headlines point to active, serious tension between Iran and the US, which is exactly the kind of geopolitical pressure that has triggered full airspace closures in the past. No confirmed new airspace closure is reported in this news. Iran has already closed its airspace fully twice in early 2026, so this is not a theoretical scenario — it has happened recently, more than once. The market prices the August 31 deadline at 38%, meaning the market sees it as a real but not certain possibility. The core uncertainty is whether the current tensions (strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, sharp political warnings) escalate into another full closure, or de-escalate. Geopolitical crises can shift quickly and unpredictably, making timing especially hard to gauge across these shorter deadlines.

The odds right now

• August 31+17.0 pts (1w)36%
• July 31+13.5 pts (1w)23%
• July 15+4.8 pts (1w)9%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

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