Iran military action against a gulf state on...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Iran will physically strike one of six specific Gulf Arab countries — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the UAE — on a particular date, using a meaningful weapon like a missile or a heavy drone. A Yes means a real Iranian strike actually lands on the soil or internal waters of one of those countries. A No means that day passes without that happening — even if there are threats, interceptions, or fighting elsewhere. It settles Yes only if an Iranian-launched airstrike, missile, or drone heavier than 50 kg physically hits the territory of one of the six named Gulf states on the target date (Arabia Standard Time). Two important surprises: first, if the munition is shot down before impact, that counts as No — even if debris falls and causes damage. Second, small drones under 50 kg, cyber attacks, threats, and naval fire all explicitly do not qualify. Conflicting reports can delay settlement by up to three days past the event. The news from July 12 paints a sharp escalation: Iran reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz citing what it called illegal U.S. military movements, a senior Iranian official warned the U.S. that a 'new era' has begun, and one headline states Iran and the U.S. were actively trading strikes. These are significant signals of rising tension between Iran and U.S. forces — which is the direct backdrop against which any spillover toward Gulf states would be assessed. The wild swing in odds — from 26% on July 9 to 71% on July 12, then back to 39% on July 13 — tells you how fast the situation is moving and how uncertain participants genuinely are. The core tension: Iran appears locked in direct conflict with the U.S., but striking a Gulf Arab state is a separate and much larger escalation step with its own risks for Iran. Whether that line gets crossed on a specific date depends on decisions made in real time, under pressure, by governments — exactly the kind of thing that's hardest to predict.

The odds right now

• July 1292%
• July 1355%
• July 1432%
• July 928%
• July 1824%
• July 1522%
• July 1621%
• July 1720%
• July 2219%
• July 3119%
• July 1918%
• July 2118%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including loitering munitions and FPV drones under 50 kg, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on a Gulf State do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact a Gulf State if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of a Gulf State, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Iran and the relevant Gulf States and a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

Trade this market on Paridesk — non-custodial, 0.5% fee.