Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 Azure revenue growth (constant currency)?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how fast Microsoft's Azure cloud business will grow in the April, June 2026 quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier, specifically, whether that growth rate lands between 38, 40%, 40, 42%, or 42, 44%. Azure is Microsoft's cloud computing platform, where businesses rent computing power and AI services instead of running their own servers. 'Constant currency' means the growth figure is adjusted to remove the effect of currency exchange-rate swings, so it reflects real business momentum rather than fluctuations in the dollar versus other currencies. When Microsoft publishes its official Q4 fiscal year 2026 earnings, expected in late July 2026, this market locks in on whatever Azure constant-currency growth rate Microsoft reports in that release. The first number Microsoft reports is the one that counts; later corrections don't apply. If Microsoft reports a range instead of a single number, the midpoint is used. If Azure growth isn't reported at all, or if earnings aren't released by August 31, 2026, the market automatically settles to the lowest bracket (38, 40%). A number landing exactly on a boundary (say, exactly 42%) goes to the higher bracket. None of the provided recent news headlines relate to Microsoft, Azure, or cloud computing in any meaningful way. The stories cover Israeli tech, Indian infrastructure, and Indonesian tourism policy. To follow this market, the most relevant developments to watch for would be any Microsoft earnings guidance updates, analyst forecasts for Azure, or signals about enterprise cloud spending and AI adoption trends heading into the quarter. The market is nearly evenly split between the 38, 40% and 40, 42% brackets, each priced around 42%, which tells you participants genuinely don't know which side it lands on. Azure's growth rate depends on multiple hard-to-predict factors: how quickly large companies are adopting AI services, competition from Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud, capacity constraints in Microsoft's data centers, and broader shifts in corporate IT budgets. A difference of just one or two percentage points separates the brackets, so even a small surprise in either direction flips the outcome.

The odds right now

• 40%-42%40%
• 38%-40%30%
• 42%-44%23%
• <38%7%
• 44%+%5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 29, 2026

This market will resolve according to Microsoft's Azure revenue growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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