Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

What you need to know

This market is asking on which specific date Google will publicly release its next AI model with the 'Pro' label — think something like Gemini 3.5 Pro or Gemini 4.0 Pro. The three options are July 17, July 30, or not at all before July 31, 2026. It's not asking whether a new Gemini exists internally or in testing — only when regular people can actually access it. Flash or Flash-Lite models don't count, no matter how capable they are. The market settles on whichever date a new Gemini Pro model becomes openly accessible to the general public — via official Google channels, an open beta, or a public waitlist. A model stuck in closed or invite-only testing does not count, even if it's technically live. Google's own announcements are the primary source of truth, backed by credible news coverage. If no qualifying Pro model is publicly released by July 31, 2026, the market resolves to the 'No release' option. None of the provided news stories relate to a Gemini Pro release. The headlines cover a business AI partnership, ChatGPT feature updates, an EU regulatory story, and a media opinion piece — none of which directly signal what Google is doing with its Gemini Pro lineup. The kind of news that would matter here is a Google blog post, a Google I/O announcement, or a credible leak indicating a Pro model launch is imminent. The core difficulty is that Google controls the timing entirely and rarely gives precise advance notice for model releases. The market currently leans heavily toward a July 30 release at 51%, but that date is essentially the final day before the deadline — a single-day window. If Google ships even one day late, it falls into the 'No release' bucket. There's also ambiguity in what qualifies: a preview, a GA upgrade of an existing model, or a brand-new Pro line could all count or not, depending on Google's exact labeling.

The odds right now

• July 30+51.1 pts (1w)51%
• No release by July 31+9.0 pts (1w)24%
• July 17-41.9 pts (1w)24%
• July 29+0.9 pts (1w)3%
• July 16-0.5 pts (1w)1%
• July 23+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• July 24+0.2 pts (1w)0%
• July 20-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• July 21-8.8 pts (1w)0%
• July 13-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• July 14-9.0 pts (1w)0%
• July 15-0.8 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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