Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

What you need to know

This market is asking which of three specific leaders — Colombia's President Gustavo Petro, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, or Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel — will be the first to permanently leave their position before the end of 2026. A 'Yes' for any one of them means they are fully out of power for good; a 'No' outcome (labeled 'None before 2027') means all three are still in their seats when the clock hits December 31, 2026. For the market to resolve to a specific person, that person must fully and permanently leave office — not just be temporarily suspended, impeached pending a ruling, or stay on as a caretaker while a replacement is sorted. The rules are strict: even winning or losing an election does not count until the person actually hands over the role completely. If all three are still technically in office at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the market resolves as 'None before 2027.' A consensus of credible news reporting makes the final call. One piece of potentially relevant news: the UK's Defence Secretary has reportedly resigned over armed forces funding — a sign of political pressure inside Starmer's government. That kind of internal fracture can matter for a prime minister's hold on power. The other headlines provided — about EU politics, Northern Ireland unrest, the Pope, and a quantum computer — do not appear directly connected to any of the three leaders in this market. The biggest source of uncertainty here is that 'leaving office' has a high bar under these rules — it must be permanent and complete, not a temporary wobble. Petro leads at 59%, likely reflecting Colombia's turbulent political environment and ongoing tensions around his presidency, but turbulence does not automatically equal permanent removal. Starmer is at 24%, reflecting real but more limited pressure. Díaz-Canel at 10% reflects Cuba's opaque, tightly controlled system where leadership transitions are rarely visible in advance. The deadline is also tight — about six months away.

The odds right now

• Petro - Colombia President+3.5 pts (1w)60%
• Starmer - UK PM-4.0 pts (1w)22%
• Díaz-Canel - Cuba President+0.7 pts (1w)10%
• Merz - German Chancellor+2.3 pts (1w)3%
• Netanyahu - Israel PM-0.7 pts (1w)2%
• None before 20272%
• Sánchez - Spanish PM-0.5 pts (1w)1%
• Lula da Silva - Brazil President-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Zelenskyy - Ukraine President-0.4 pts (1w)0%
• Takaichi - Japan PM-1.3 pts (1w)0%
• Putin - Russia President-0.5 pts (1w)0%
• Abbas - President of Palestine-0.9 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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