Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro): how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking which world leader — from a fixed list — will be the first to fully and permanently lose their job before the end of 2026. The two biggest names on the list are Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel's Prime Minister) and Sébastien Lecornu (France's Prime Minister), plus several others not shown here. A 'Yes' for any one of them means they truly left office — not just suspended, not just lost an election, but actually gone from the role. 'None before 2027' wins if all of them stay in place. To settle this market, a leader must permanently leave their office — not just face a vote, announce a resignation, or be temporarily suspended. The rules are strict: if Netanyahu were impeached but stayed on as caretaker, that would not count. If Lecornu's party lost an election but he remained in a caretaker role while a new government formed, that also would not count. The deadline is December 31, 2026. A consensus of credible news outlets is what the market uses to confirm any departure. The provided news headlines are all about US-Brazil tariffs and do not relate to any of the leaders in this market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be: a no-confidence vote against Lecornu in the French parliament, a major legal or political crisis accelerating Netanyahu's departure from office, or instability for any other leader on the list. The market currently prices 'None before 2027' at 59%, meaning the most common view is that all these leaders hang on — but there is real doubt. Netanyahu faces ongoing legal trials and a fragile coalition, making him the single leader the market assigns the most departure risk to at 18%. The resolution rules add extra complexity: a leader could lose an election or face suspension and still not trigger resolution if they linger in a caretaker role. That narrow definition of 'permanent removal' makes this genuinely hard to call even when political situations look unstable.

The odds right now

• None before 2027+12.0 pts (1w)60%
• Netanyahu - Israel PM+2.0 pts (1w)19%
• Lula da Silva - Brazil President+4.7 pts (1w)6%
• Lecornu - France PM-9.0 pts (1w)6%
• Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President-1.5 pts (1w)4%
• Díaz-Canel - Cuba President-0.9 pts (1w)3%
• Putin - Russia President-0.1 pts (1w)3%
• Xi - General Secretary of the CCP+1.8 pts (1w)2%
• Abbas - President of Palestine+1.1 pts (1w)2%
• Newsom - California Governor+1.2 pts (1w)2%
• Erdoğan - Türkiye President+0.3 pts (1w)1%
• Takaichi - Japan PM+0.9 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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