SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

What you need to know

This market is really a bundle of questions about the 13th test flight of SpaceX's Starship rocket — the largest rocket ever built. The core question is simply: will Starship 13 lift off the launch pad by a certain date? Separate related questions ask about timing (by July 31 or August 31), whether the giant booster rocket explodes during the test, whether the upper stage splashes down safely in the ocean, and whether the booster gets caught mid-air by the tower's mechanical arms (nicknamed 'chopsticks'). For the launch questions, the market settles as Yes the moment Starship 13 physically leaves the launch pad — a successful liftoff, confirmed by SpaceX video. What happens after liftoff (explosions, crashes, anything) does not affect this part. The booster-explosion question covers the full flight window plus 60 minutes after landing, including intentional destruction. The splashdown question requires the upper stage to re-enter, stay intact, and hit the water in one piece. All questions close No if the 13th launch hasn't happened by December 31, 2026. None of the provided news headlines relate to SpaceX, Starship, or space launches. There is no relevant recent news to summarize here. What would matter to watch for: any FAA launch license updates, SpaceX announcements about launch readiness, or news about pad infrastructure and booster hardware status. The market prices a launch by August 31 at 93%, so participants broadly expect it to happen — but SpaceX's Starship program has a history of delays caused by regulatory approvals, hardware issues, and weather. The booster-explosion question sits at 91%, reflecting how often past Starship boosters have ended in destruction. The real uncertainties are regulatory timing (the FAA controls the launch license), technical readiness, and simply how complex catching a falling booster with mechanical arms remains. Each sub-question adds its own layer of unpredictability.

The odds right now

• August 31+9.6 pts (1w)98%
• July 31+26.0 pts (1w)93%
• Super Heavy booster explodes?+14.5 pts (1w)91%
• July 1776%
• Successful splash down?-2.5 pts (1w)74%
• July 1670%
• Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?-1.0 pts (1w)1%
• July 150%

Price history

How this resolves

If the 13th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

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