Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

What you need to know

This market asks whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world's most important waterways, connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean — will recover to a healthy, normal level before the end of 2026. The number to watch is 60 ships per day, smoothed out over a week. Think of it like a busy highway: right now, fewer trucks are getting through than usual, and this market is asking whether that highway gets back to normal flow at any point before December 31, 2026. The market settles 'Yes' the moment the IMF's shipping tracker, Portwatch, shows a 7-day average of 60 or more ship arrivals through the strait — even once is enough, at any point before the deadline. It settles 'No' only if that level is never reached by end of 2026. The judge here is one specific data source: the IMF Portwatch website. If Portwatch doesn't publish data in time, the market uses whatever was last published. One notable rule: a reading that later gets revised downward still counts if it hit 60 when first published. Very recent and directly relevant: on July 12, 2026, a Persian Gulf authority announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed to what it called illegal US military movements, while the US military pushed back and said a southern route remains open. This is an active, unresolved standoff — exactly the kind of tension that would suppress ship traffic below the 60-ship threshold. Two of the other headlines in the news feed are unrelated to this market and can be set aside. The central difficulty is that this situation is unfolding right now, in real time, with two parties giving contradictory accounts of who controls the strait. Geopolitical standoffs like this can resolve quickly through diplomacy or escalate further — and there is no reliable way to know which. The market currently prices a 64% chance of Yes, reflecting meaningful but not overwhelming confidence in recovery. There is still 18 months until the deadline, which gives time for normalization, but also time for conditions to worsen before they improve.

The odds right now

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?-10.0 pts (1w)63%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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