Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

What you need to know

This market asks whether ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries a huge share of the world's oil — gets back to a normal, busy level before the end of July 2026. The threshold of 60 ships per day (measured as a weekly average) represents roughly what healthy, undisrupted traffic through the strait looks like. A Yes means the waterway is humming again; a No means traffic has stayed well below normal. The market settles Yes the moment the IMF's shipping-tracking tool, Portwatch, records a 7-day average of 60 or more ship arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz on any single day up to July 31, 2026. If that number is never hit by then, it settles No. The IMF Portwatch database is the only source that counts — other shipping trackers don't matter here, even if they show different numbers. The market can resolve early if the threshold is crossed before the deadline. One headline directly relevant: a maritime group reported on July 12, 2026, that the Strait of Hormuz remains physically open despite Iran announcing a closure. That's significant — it suggests ships can still pass, but the situation is tense and contested. The other headlines in the provided news don't relate to this market. Worth watching: any official escalation, military activity near the strait, or international negotiations with Iran that could change whether ships feel safe transiting. The market prices this at just 5%, meaning participants strongly expect traffic will not recover to normal by July 31. The core tension is that the strait appears physically open but politically volatile — Iran declared closure, which alone can deter shipping companies even without a physical blockade. Traffic could stay depressed simply due to insurance costs and risk aversion, even if no ship is actually stopped. The main uncertainty isn't really two equal sides; it's whether an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation could happen fast enough.

The odds right now

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?-12.0 pts (1w)5%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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