Tennessee Governor Democratic Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will win the Democratic Party's primary election for Tennessee's governor in 2026. A primary is the vote where party members choose their official candidate before the general election. A 'Yes' for Jerri Green means she gets the most Democratic votes on primary day and becomes the party's nominee; a 'Yes' for Carnita Atwater means Atwater wins that internal party vote instead. Whoever wins goes on to face the Republican nominee in November. The market settles based on who wins the most votes in the Tennessee Democratic gubernatorial primary, scheduled for August 6, 2026. If a runoff is needed, meaning no candidate clears the required threshold on primary day, the market waits for that runoff result too. The official call comes from the Tennessee Democratic Party's announcement, though widespread agreement among credible news organizations can also be enough. One edge case worth noting: if the primary never happens at all, the market resolves as 'Other' rather than Yes or No for any candidate. None of the news provided relates to this race, the headlines are about politics in Malaysia, India, and a UK wind farm, none of which touch the Tennessee governor's primary. There is no relevant recent news to report here. The kind of development worth watching for would be polling from Tennessee, major candidate endorsements, fundraising reports, or any news about additional candidates entering or leaving the race. The market is heavily one-sided, pricing Jerri Green at 90%, so the main uncertainty is not really 'who has the edge' but rather whether something unexpected disrupts that picture. Surprises that could shift things include a major endorsement for Atwater, a damaging story about Green, a surge in organizing by either campaign, or a new candidate entering the race. With over a year until the vote, there is also simply a lot of time for the situation to change in ways no one can currently predict.

The odds right now

• Jerri Green+2.5 pts (1w)89%
• Carnita Atwater-1.5 pts (1w)9%
• Tim Cyr0%
• Adam Kurtz-0.7 pts (1w)0%
• Kevin Lee McCants-2.0 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 6, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Tennessee, scheduled to take place on August 6, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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