Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Elon Musk's two biggest companies — Tesla (the electric car maker) and SpaceX (the rocket company) — will officially announce a merger or takeover before the end of 2026. A Yes means one company formally announces it is buying or absorbing the other; a No means no such announcement happens and they remain separate companies. The two deadline options shown reflect different timing bets: one ending September 30 (priced at 11%) and one ending December 31 (priced at 25%). The market settles Yes the moment an official announcement of a merger or acquisition is made by either Tesla or SpaceX — the actual deal closing is not required, just the announcement. A partial purchase only counts if the buyer gains controlling power over the other company, meaning roughly more than half the ownership or equivalent decision-making authority. If no such announcement happens by the deadline, it resolves No. The source can be a direct company statement or a strong consensus of credible news reporting. None of the provided recent headlines relate to a Tesla-SpaceX merger. The news from mid-July 2026 covers unrelated topics — a Wisconsin election ruling involving Elon Musk personally, an education company's financials, and Rocket Lab's stock performance. What would actually matter to watch here is any statement from Musk, Tesla's board, or SpaceX about combining the two companies, or regulatory filings signaling a deal. This question is hard to predict partly because it depends almost entirely on one person's private decisions. Elon Musk controls both companies, so a merger is theoretically possible without the usual board negotiations — but that also means it could happen with very little public warning. Against it: Tesla is publicly traded, meaning a merger would face significant regulatory and shareholder scrutiny. The market prices the December deadline at 25%, reflecting that while most participants consider it unlikely, it is not impossible.

The odds right now

• December 3124%
• September 30+1.0 pts (1w)11%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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