Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

What you need to know

This market is asking how hot 2026 will be compared to every year in recorded global temperature history. NASA keeps a running list of the hottest years ever measured — ranked from hottest (#1) down. Right now, 2024 holds the #1 spot, with 2023 at #2. This market asks: when 2026 is added to that list, where will it land? A rank of 1 means 2026 was the hottest year ever recorded. A rank of 2 means it was second hottest, and so on. NASA will settle this using its official Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index — a specific data table it publishes online. Once NASA posts the final 2026 figure, the market closes based on where 2026 ranks among all years in that table, no adjustments allowed even if NASA later revises the number. There's one notable edge case: if 2026 ties with another year, it takes whatever rank that year holds. And if NASA doesn't publish the data by March 1, 2027, the market falls back on credible news reporting instead. No relevant news was provided for this market. The one headline given is about a political story unrelated to global temperatures. What would actually matter here: monthly global temperature readings from NASA or NOAA throughout 2026, and any updates on whether La Niña or El Niño conditions are affecting ocean heat — since those ocean patterns have a strong influence on how warm any given year ends up. The year is still in progress, so most of the data simply doesn't exist yet — temperatures from the second half of 2026 haven't happened. Ocean heat patterns, which shift unpredictably, play a big role in final rankings. The gap between ranks is also very small in recent years: 2023 and 2024 were unusually close in temperature, so 2026 could land near the top or slip to #3 based on fractions of a degree. The market prices #2 as most likely at 63%, but that reflects real uncertainty, not certainty.

The odds right now

• 2-5.5 pts (1w)62%
• 1+3.5 pts (1w)32%
• 3+0.4 pts (1w)3%
• 6 or lower-1.0 pts (1w)1%
• 4-0.4 pts (1w)1%
• 5+0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. The exchange's settlement fee applies everywhere and is shown before you confirm any trade. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.