Which company has the best Math AI model end of July?

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 31, 2026, which company — Anthropic, Google, or OpenAI — has the AI model sitting at the very top of a public math leaderboard? The leaderboard, called Chatbot Arena, ranks AI models based on real people's votes after testing them head-to-head on math problems. A Yes for Anthropic means their model is ranked #1 in math on that day; a Yes for Google or OpenAI means one of theirs beat everyone else to the top spot. On July 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, someone checks the Math leaderboard at arena.ai and looks at who holds the #1 rank. Whichever company owns that top model wins. If two models are tied, the tiebreaker goes to whoever has a higher underlying score — and if that's still tied, alphabetical order decides it. The leaderboard must be live at that moment; if the site is down, the check is delayed until it comes back online. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market. They cover jewelry stocks, a logistics park in India, and unrelated international stories. To track this market, the things worth watching would be new model releases from Anthropic, Google, or OpenAI — especially any announcements about models designed for strong math performance. The AI industry moves extremely fast, and a single new model release can reshuffle the leaderboard overnight. Anthropic is priced heavily as the frontrunner at 77%, which reflects their current standing — but there are still several months left before the July 2026 deadline, and both Google and OpenAI release major models regularly. The main uncertainty is whether a new release between now and then displaces whoever currently leads. In a field that changes this quickly, past rankings are not a guarantee of future ones.

The odds right now

• Anthropic+23.0 pts (1w)86%
• Google-17.5 pts (1w)9%
• OpenAI-12.4 pts (1w)1%
• Alibaba0%
• Z.ai0%
• xAI-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• DeepSeek0%
• Moonshot0%
• Mistral0%
• Meituan0%
• Microsoft0%
• Meta0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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