Which company has the third best AI model end of July?

What you need to know

This market asks: at the end of July 2026, which company will have the third-best AI chatbot in the world, according to one specific public ranking? The Chatbot Arena leaderboard (lmarena.ai) lets real users compare AI models head-to-head and vote on which one gives better answers — the rankings come from millions of those votes, not from a panel of judges. Third place means the company whose model sits just below the top two. The market currently thinks Anthropic (maker of Claude) is almost certain to hold that spot. On July 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, someone will open the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at lmarena.ai, go to the 'Text Arena | Overall' tab, turn style control off, and read whichever company's model sits in rank 3. That company wins. If two models are tied on rank, the tiebreaker is their underlying score; if still tied, it goes alphabetically by company name. If the site is down that day, the check waits until it's back online. There's no human judgment call — it's purely whatever the leaderboard shows at that moment. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market. The Google/Gemini Chrome story is too minor to affect leaderboard standings. To watch for: any major new model releases from Anthropic, Google, OpenAI, xAI, or Meta between now and July 31 could shift the rankings, since a strong new launch can quickly climb the leaderboard through user votes. The market is heavily lopsided — 95% on Anthropic — so the honest framing is that the main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts that. AI model rankings can move fast: a major new release from Google, OpenAI, xAI, or Meta could push an Anthropic model out of third place in weeks. The leaderboard also reflects public voting, which can shift with model updates or user behavior. With about two weeks left, the window for a surprise is short but real, which is why it's not priced at 100%.

The odds right now

• Anthropic+8.0 pts (1w)95%
• Google-4.0 pts (1w)3%
• OpenAI-3.1 pts (1w)2%
• Meta+0.5 pts (1w)1%
• xAI+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Meituan-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Alibaba0%
• Z.ai0%
• DeepSeek-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Moonshot-0.2 pts (1w)0%
• Mistral-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Microsoft-0.2 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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