Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

What you need to know

This market asks whether military ships from the United States, United Kingdom, or Netherlands will physically sail through the narrowest chokepoint between Iran and Oman — the Strait of Hormuz — before July 31, 2026. Yes means a warship from that country actually passed through that specific narrow passage. No means it didn't happen, or only happened nearby without crossing through the strait itself. Think of it like asking whether a ship crossed through a specific doorway, not just whether it was in the same building. Each country resolves Yes the moment its government, military, or an overwhelming consensus of credible news sources confirms a warship crossed through the Strait of Hormuz's narrowest point. The key edge case: being present in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea — without confirmed passage through the strait itself — does not count. So a U.S. Navy ship operating nearby but never crossing that specific narrow channel would still resolve No. The deadline is July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The news from July 12, 2026 points to an active and escalating situation. Reports describe U.S. strikes on Iran, attacks on military targets near the Strait on Qeshm island, and President Trump sending signals to Iran via bomber aircraft photos. One headline suggests Trump made a claim about the Strait of Hormuz, though the full quote wasn't provided. This context suggests the Strait is currently a live flashpoint — the kind of environment where warship movements become both more likely and more carefully watched. The biggest challenge is the gap between military presence and confirmed transit. The U.S. in particular operates heavily in the region, but 'nearby' doesn't count — only passage through the specific narrow channel does. Governments don't always publicize individual ship movements, especially in tense situations. The situation also appears to be actively evolving, which means conditions could shift quickly in either direction. For the UK and Netherlands, the lower odds reflect that their naval presence in this region is less frequent and less publicly documented.

The odds right now

• United States+7.5 pts (1w)31%
• United Kingdom-2.4 pts (1w)4%
• Netherlands+0.4 pts (1w)3%
• Italy+2.0 pts (1w)3%
• Germany-0.7 pts (1w)3%
• France-4.8 pts (1w)3%
• Greece-1.4 pts (1w)1%
• Australia-0.6 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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