Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

What you need to know

This market asks whether Somaliland, Turkey, or Syria will officially make peace with Israel — on paper, before the end of 2026 — using the Abraham Accords as the framework. The Abraham Accords are the U.S.-brokered agreements from 2020 where several Arab countries (UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan) formally recognized Israel and agreed to normal diplomatic and trade relations. A 'Yes' here means one of these three countries does the same thing: a public handshake deal, recognized by both sides, before December 31, 2026. The market settles as 'Yes' only if a country signs a formal normalization agreement with Israel that both governments publicly acknowledge, and that is clearly connected to the Abraham Accords framework — all before midnight ET on December 31, 2026. The key edge case: a quiet diplomatic improvement or a rumored deal in progress does not count. It has to be an official, publicly attributed signing. Official government statements are the primary source, but credible news reporting can also be used to confirm it. None of the provided recent headlines relate directly to Abraham Accords negotiations involving Somaliland, Turkey, or Syria. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development worth watching for would be: official statements from Israeli, U.S., or any of these three governments signaling active normalization talks, or a U.S. diplomatic push to expand the Accords before the 2026 deadline. Each country faces very different obstacles, and none of the three paths is straightforward. Somaliland is not internationally recognized as a sovereign state, which raises a real question about whether it can legally sign such an agreement. Turkey has deep domestic political tensions around Israel. Syria is still emerging from years of civil war and has no established diplomatic relationship with Israel. The ongoing Gaza conflict adds a layer of unpredictability to any Arab-Israeli normalization effort. The market prices all three below 20%, suggesting participants see each as unlikely — but not impossible.

The odds right now

• Somaliland19%
• Turkey+6.4 pts (1w)11%
• Syria+6.6 pts (1w)10%
• Azerbaijan-0.6 pts (1w)9%
• Lebanon-4.0 pts (1w)9%
• Egypt-1.8 pts (1w)8%
• Kuwait+1.0 pts (1w)8%
• Pakistan+1.0 pts (1w)7%
• Jordan-9.5 pts (1w)7%
• Qatar-3.0 pts (1w)6%
• Saudi Arabia6%
• Oman-2.1 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

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